Fed: Turnbull probably wishing the silly season would hurry up

AAP General News (Australia)
12-12-2008
Fed: Turnbull probably wishing the silly season would hurry up

By Kate Hannon, National Political Editor

CANBERRA, Dec 12 AAP - Malcolm Turnbull is probably wishing the silly season would
hurry up and lower the curtain on serious news for the year.

After a little more than 10 weeks in the job as opposition leader, Turnbull has experienced
his first party shambles followed by a bad opinion poll.

It has had the effect of ending his leadership honeymoon - such as it is for an opposition
leader - and of setting the hares running speculating about his future.

To say it has been a damaging week for Turnbull is an understatement as well as being
the worst possible way to finish a bad year.

To make things worse, the government is riding as high in the polls as it was fresh
from its election 12 months ago.

Labor began rolling out its $10.4 billion stimulus package putting up to $2100 into
the hands of pensioners and up to $1000 per child for families with instructions to spend
it before Christmas.

As the government grapples with the global financial crisis and ends the week announcing
its first round of major infrastructure spending, the opposition is left looking inward,
fighting amongst themselves.

It was only two weeks ago Turnbull was painting an optimistic picture for the coalition
during an end-of-year pep talk to his parliamentary colleagues.

He told them they'd had a tough year but were no longer "demoralised" following the
leadership change.

But, as if to prove the adage that a week is a long time in politics, the opposition
ended up looking like a dishevelled rabble with its MPs doing one thing in the lower house
and another in the Senate.

It was embarrassing for Turnbull and it leaves the opposition team going into the summer
break feeling out of sorts and a question mark hanging over the leadership group.

Turnbull would prefer them to return reinvigorated and full of policy ideas and with
some strategy plans for the Senate.

As Turnbull told the party room, the Senate is now the "coalface" of political activity
in the next two years.

The first test will be the Senate inquiry into Labor's Fair Work bill, the replacement
for Work Choices, which will hold seven days of public hearings starting the day after
Australia Day.

The opposition has already flagged it does not intend to oppose the bill, but Turnbull
has reserved the right to seek amendments depending on the inquiry outcome.

Both Turnbull and his leader in the Senate, Nick Minchin, will want to keep the backbench
well briefed in order to avoid another fiasco when it comes to making amendments.

The other early challenge will be carbon emissions trading where, as with the Fair
Work bill, the crossbench senators - the five Greens, Nick Xenophon and Steve Fielding
- will all want to have their say.

The government will need to tread carefully in its negotiations if it wants to avoid
a legislative mess and the possibility of a double dissolution election if it can't get
the bills passed.

What made the week even worse for Turnbull was Tuesday's final Newspoll for the year,
which showed his support levels had receded to those of his predecessor Brendan Nelson
in the middle of the year.

Senior members of the opposition blamed the poor poll - showing two party preferred
support for the coalition down by four points to 41 per cent against Labor's up four to
59 per cent - on the Senate vote collapse.

Turnbull's support as preferred prime minister dropped two points to 19 per cent while
Kevin Rudd's rose by three to 66 per cent.

As for Rudd, his satisfaction rating had climbed again close to the immediate post-election
stratosphere of 70 per cent.

It has the effect of placing Turnbull's performance under the microscope with every
move, stumble, or slip-up analysed and bookended between the last poll and the next one.

While it is only one bad poll and parliament does not sit again until February, giving
Turnbull time to knock a few heads together, it did not help any to have the bickering
still going on Friday.

Former Howard government minister Tony Abbott used a column in The Australian newspaper
on Friday to add fuel to the fire with an attack on The Nationals and particularly their
Senate leader Barnaby Joyce.

Abbott chastised the junior coalition partners for defying the leadership twice last
week, saying it was not on to be part of a coalition only when it suited them.

It is unlikely to be the last salvo in that battle.

AAP keh/rl/wf/mo

KEYWORD: NEWSCOPE FEDERAL

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